MarketMap2018 Issue #2

Posted by on Feb 3, 2018 in Be a Trader, Geopolitical Risk, Market Advisory, Market Map, Newsletter | 0 comments

January 23, 2018

Through all the channels I listen to there is an overwhelming consensus that we are in a new secular bull market and there are no signs of a top and the market is virtually without risk.

The pundits hang their hat on the A/D line which is in gear and until it diverges the market is going higher. I mentioned this in the new year issue #1. They also love the monthly RSI at a historical high of 85, never preceding a bear.

Cheap Deal saves $135.00 for the annual model – two major publications including COT table like the one used here, for the year.

More recently the social media types of wall street look at ADX at 50 to infer the trend dynamics are higher. However, these extremely high levels above 50 by ADX when seen in the context of panic buying, the 50 ADX is a change of trend (COT); the bull run since November 8, 2018, is a panic, emotional, a I can not afford to miss the move to be taken advantage of by the level-headed.

#Twitter Sentiment index is the “off the chart!” Sentiment attending to the Trump’s bull market seen in extreme opinions shared widely on social media and financial news channels constitute the single most reliable indicator of a pending change of direction.

One measure of this “SPECULATIVE INTENSITY” already peaked December 17, 2018. BitCoin from that date has lost 40% plus.

 

Our CMT friend and associate Bob Prechter point to another measure of speculative intensity. The indication is the widening of the gap between the yield of junk bonds and yield US of Treasury bonds of similar maturities. When the spread widens, it is a reflection of the market without risk management considerations – signs of a change of a trend for risk assets like stocks.

As you can see in our MarketMap 2018 Table, the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price. A sizable decline %5 plus establishes bearish confidence. Big swing (multi-month) systems when they sell (taking profits) and when they sell short, this advice will be in your inbox.

 

MarketMap Stock market scenario planner, market timing, identification of trend change, sentiment and risk/opportunity management, $89/mo

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