MarketMap 2018 first quarter synopsis

Posted by on Apr 14, 2018 in Be a Trader | 0 comments

Geopolitical Security threats will precipitate financial distress

 

#MarketMap Jan 3, 2018

 

“Here are the first of three scenario maps for the trading year. The dates relate to time windows when to expect an intermediate term (IT) change of trend. In other words, turning dates. The time window for a major change may be as late as January 29.”

 

#MarketMap Jan 8, 2018 Issue #1

Geopolitical Security threats will precipitate financial distress “A constitutional crisis has parallels with this cycle, the 18.6-year cycle the market is in today. Just go back 19 years to the impeachment of President Clinton…”

 

#MarketMap Jan 11, 2018

“Peaks during particular times of the year – seasonal peaks – have a length of time to their lows. Better put, they have a high to the low time span that repeats based on its respective cycle series.

The current series is measured from the January 11, 1973 series.”

 

#MarketMap Jan 23, 2018

 “As you can see in our Early Table, the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price, confirmed by a sizable decline %5 plus – established by our big swing (multi-month) systems sell (taking profits) and sell short signals before the end of the month.”

 

#MarketMap Jan 31, 2018 Publication #3

 “… idea to create a short-term to the intermediate-term fear spread of the XIV/ZIV.  I found that anytime the spread experienced a negative difference the stock market was followed by at least a short-term – multi-week – consolidation or correction. The chart above clearing shows the divergence, suggestion a backdrop of increasing fear. “

 

#MarketMap February 1, 2018

“Pivotal times, the market’s ability to make new highs is key. FAILURE to do so will be met with a TON of selling = both profit taking and new shorts.  What makes it even more important is the financial media’s lack of rationalizations for the most recent sell-off ‘out of nowhere.’”

 

#MarketMap February 6, 2018

 “TMT’s panic index has not seen such an extreme – on the weekly bar – since Aug 1998, July 2002, Oct. 2008, Aug. 2011 and August 2015.

Each of these panic low events were followed by a reflex rally and more decline that will test the low and, in some cases, make new lows, like 08.

With TEM is a panic extreme reading, the inference being chop or whipsaw action. Traders who own the anti-trend Dunn’s deal and %Bounz might want to dust them off and put them into action.”

 

#MarketMap February 12, 2018

“Here are the background traders should expect now that a low is in place for the s-t to i-t.

After a top is in place, there is indifference reflected by the public and media. Buy dips is programmed into the mob’s behavior. However, smart money, the early adopters, if you will, uses the volume of new entrants to sell into.

The price recovery after a peak can never extend beyond the starting point of the new trend, any new highs. Typically, the news is still good. As prices retest the prior highs.

Bullish sentiment quickly builds, and “the crowd” reminds anyone who will listen that the bull market is still deeply ensconced. It is what TMTraders called a déjà vu rally.”

 

#MarketMap February 27, 2018

“The two scenarios for the world index and Dow/SP is a top at the next major COT date that is projected for mid-April to early May.

A new high does not kill the idea of a new bear market; it merely makes it an irregular top.

The scenario outlined in a previous post would limit this déjà vu rally to a 62% – 99% retracement and no new high.”

 

#MarketMap March 4, 2018

“The ideal set up for the next big spill is a continuation of the backing and filling the market has been doing since the mini panic low. With the conventional wisdom to be sell in May and walk away and the consensus of almanac and cycle methods pointing to an early May peak, all eyes are on April.”

#MarketMap March 13, 2018

“The consensus outlook for the world equity markets is the possibility of a bear cycle when the current seasonal risk increases from May-through the October period.”

 

#MarketMap 2018 March 13, 2018,

“…is pointing to a turn from Monday, April 16 through Monday, April 23, I expect a peak to be in place and the next phase of decline to kick in.

The consensus is well known for the May peak, and it will be discounted.  I will not act blindly on this inference. I will be looking at our Volatility Reports – the Technical Event Matrix (%C-Plus) – to give me the set up that supports a trend change and the dynamics of the move.”

 

#MarketMap 2018 March 26, 2018

“FN-Media talking down trade war potential and a 300 point higher open.  Do not get caught up in that game.”

The dates in the above map are time windows in which traders should expect change. The direction of the chart is not a forecast. For example, the COT date that occurred at the end of January was a change from up to down.

Regarding the current cycle condition, the time window with the greatest amount of clustering from a wide variety of cycle analysis is the mid-April to early-May time.  The two independent market maps in MarketMap 2018 Issue #1 show the pivotal time zone from April 22 to May 2. This, by the way, fits with the traditional almanac charts that call for annual peak in May, which the May rule is based.

Remember there are six types of trend changes and the map by itself does not give traders an idea of the dynamics coming out of the time window. Like any other tool, it should be used in combination with others.

 

The April Volatility Report is forthcoming.

It will contain the current background analysis regarding what dynamics traders and investors should expect coming out of the pending COT, along with the Strategy Selector and ETF allocations.

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