How will you navigate volatile markets?

Posted by on Dec 20, 2017 in Be a Trader, Market Advisory, Market Map, Newsletter | 0 comments

Volatility is coming back to the stock market in 2018



uses Annual One Day (AOD) change dates, cycle confluence dates, and our January formula to produce the maps. Since 2010 our map provides the best scenario planning newsletter in the industry.

Market Timing is more important from today into 2020 than it has been in the last ten years, because of regime or leadership change.

The political bastions of power have their influence on the market; this is especially noteworthy when the two branches of government – Executive Branch and the Legislative branches – are ruled by the same political party.

From the time the stock market was created under the buttonwood tree on the curbs of downtown Manhattan, there have been six times when the Democrats controlled both branches and three times the Republicans have controlled both the Executive branch and the Legislative branches.

The above does not include the Regime change on January 20, 2017, when again the Republicans will control both branches.

Here are the facts: stock market crashes have followed Republican two branches rule 100% of the time, whereas five times out of six times Democratic two branch domination was followed by bull markets.

Their respective impact over the last 116 years is as follows:

From 1901 t0 1909 Republicans control 1907 Rich Mans Market Panic
From 1913 to 1915 Democrats control WWI & Bull Market
From 1921 to 1931 Republicans control 1929 crash
From 1933 to 1951 Democrats control -WWII and Korean War; Secular bull market
From 1961 to 1967 Democrats control Vietnam War; Bull Market
From 1977 to 1979 Democrats control Stagflation broad trading range market.
From 1993 to 1995 Democrats control Kicked off the biggest bull market in history.
From 2003 to 2007 Republicans control – World Financial Crisis
From 2009 to 2011 Democrats control Kicked off the third largest bull market in history.

From January 20, 2017, to 2019 and maybe longer Republicans will control the bastions of power. If history repeats itself, a financial crisis and panic of some magnitude are expected.

Donald Trump follows Herbert Hoover (President 1929-33) as the second person to be elected president without having had any prior military experience nor to have held any level of elected office.

We get it, plus we know most boom and busts that plagued the American economy for the past 200 years – starting in 1820 – were generated by a government creating a boom through easy money and credit, which was soon followed by the inevitable bust.

So it’s only a matter of when and how much.

From 2009 the ten years of quantitative easing was the good news. On the heels of that the new laissez-faire white house and the $1.49 trillion deficit the new tax reform will cause leaves, any failure in the market’s confidence, without the fiscal stimulus normally used to aid a soft landing.

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