Market Map

focus on cycle COT dates

Is the true source of alpha moving between short and long volatility exposure?

ContraryThinker is warning its professional following since January 18, 2018, of the topping process with 28% plus bear market risk that will unfold over the next two years. Our most recent subject line read, “The rational market cycle from bottom to top moves from bargain buying to value buying to growth buying to momentum buying into panic buying and now lack of liquidity with the arrogant...

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Geopolitical Security threats will precipitate financial distress

Geopolitical Security threats will precipitate financial distress January 18, 2018 Can 2018 possibly match Wall Street’s perfect 2017 It doesn’t get better than this: Encouraged by the surprise electoral victory of President Donald Trump and his aggressive push for tax cuts and deregulation, the U.S. stock market ended the first ever “perfect year.” That is one in which all 12 months featured...

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MarketMap2018 Issue #2

January 23, 2018 Through all the channels I listen to there is an overwhelming consensus that we are in a new secular bull market and there are no signs of a top and the market is virtually without risk. The pundits hang their hat on the A/D line which is in gear and until it diverges the market is going higher. I mentioned this in the new year issue #1. They also love the monthly RSI at a...

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